Clément Molin conducted an extensive analysis of developments on key fronts.
Let's start with the hottest zone—the Donetsk direction, or as Molin called it, the "Battle of Donetsk."
ℹ️ Most of the active combat in 2024 took place in the area between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, approximately 50 kilometers from Donetsk. This can be called the "Battle of Donetsk" because the strategic goal of the Russian army was to push the front line away from the suburbs of the former million-strong city.
ℹ️ In January and February 2024, Russia captured the strategically significant city of Avdiivka. Located just 5 kilometers north of Donetsk, Avdiivka had been heavily fortified since the beginning of the war in Donbas in 2014 and was used by the Ukrainian side to launch attacks on Russian forces in the northern and western parts of Donetsk.
ℹ️ The Russian offensive was organized along three main axes. The primary and largest axis was the Avdiivka axis, supported by two secondary axes: Krasnohorivka/Marinka-Kurakhove along the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia highway and the Novomykhailivka-Vuhledar axis. After the occupation (and near-total destruction) of Avdiivka, Russian forces launched an assault along the Donetsk-Pokrovsk railway line. Thanks to a local breakthrough in April, they first took control of the high-ground village of Ocheretyne and then continued their advance toward Pokrovsk. By July, Ukrainian forces were unable to hold their defense and abandoned two (unfinished) defensive lines.
ℹ️ The Russian army was able to advance easily along railway lines and roads, bypassing Ukrainian defensive positions. The inadequate preparation of Ukrainian defenses after the fall of Avdiivka was one of the main reasons for the Russian advance in 2024. By August, Russian troops had taken control of Hrodivka and Novohrodivka, the last two towns before the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
ℹ️ While it was widely assumed that the Russian army would attempt to take Pokrovsk, this has not yet happened. Instead, Russian forces advanced south, bypassing the city. Why? Because they saw an opportunity to collapse the entire front line in this part of Donetsk Oblast. Additionally, urban combat in a large city like Pokrovsk would have resulted in heavy Russian losses.
ℹ️ The Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration had around 100,000 residents in peacetime, more than Bakhmut.
ℹ️ After capturing Marinka and Novomykhailivka, Russian forces entered Krasnohorivka, another suburb of Donetsk. However, their advance there was not as successful as in the Pokrovsk direction. Meanwhile, a rapid Russian push north of Kurakhove in August 2024 was enabled by the collapse of Ukrainian defenses in that area. After capturing the village of Kostyantynivka west of Novomykhailivka, Russian troops established positions north of the well-fortified city of Vuhledar. Vuhledar had been a strategically important defensive position and had been held for over two years. By late September, Russia captured Vuhledar, breaking through the southern front line in Donetsk Oblast.
ℹ️ After Russian forces advanced to the third Ukrainian defensive line near Pokrovsk, they shifted their attacks southward, taking control of Ukrainsk, advancing along the Krasnohorivka-Pokrovsk railway line, and pushing north. By October, they had nearly encircled Selydove south of Pokrovsk, which later fell without major fighting. Meanwhile, the Russian army captured Hirnyk and Kurakhivka north of the Vovcha River.
ℹ️ By late 2024, Russian forces captured the town of Shevchenko south of Pokrovsk and advanced to the settlement of Udachne in the west. Following the fall of Vuhledar, they also managed a small breakthrough toward Velyka Novosilka. In the final days of 2024, Kurakhove, a crucial stronghold in southern Donetsk Oblast, finally fell.
ℹ️ Thus, the "Battle of Donetsk" in 2024 pushed the front line 35 kilometers from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk and from Marinka to Kurakhove. Russia definitively won this battle, securing its main city and the strategically important Mariupol-Donetsk railway line.
ℹ️ In 2024, Russia captured a total of 3,200 km², increasing its overall occupied area in Ukraine by 0.54% to 18.14% of the country’s territory. The majority of this land, about 2,500 km²—almost 80%—is in Donetsk Oblast.
ℹ️ It is important to note that despite Russian advances, there was no major breakthrough, and the situation remained under the control of the Ukrainian army. The Donetsk offensive was extremely costly for both sides.
ℹ️ According to Naalsio26, Russia lost 2,142 units of military equipment, of which 1,755 were destroyed (including 444 tanks and 1,013 armored combat vehicles). Meanwhile, Ukraine lost 505 units of equipment, 372 of which were destroyed, including 85 tanks and 124 armored vehicles.