The UK population exceeded that of France for the first time on record, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The UK population is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032, up nearly 5 million from 67.6 million in mid-2022, according to figures from the ONS.
ONS figures show the population was 68.3 million in mid-2023, surpassing France’s 68.2 million, a figure published by Insee, the French equivalent to the ONS.
The driver of the growth over the period was migration, with natural change – the difference between births and deaths – projected to be about zero, according to the ONS.
International migration for the period is expected to be 4.9 million over the 10 years. This has been revised upwards from the previous projection of 4.5 million.
The prime minister’s official spokesperson said Keir Starmer wants to bring down “staggeringly high levels” of migration but will not set “arbitrary” caps.
“We’re going to publish a white paper to set out a comprehensive plan to end these staggeringly high migration numbers,” said the spokesperson.
“As the prime minister has previously said, we had a supposed cap in place before and it didn’t have any meaningful impact on reducing immigration.
“So he doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap, as previous governments have done, is the best way forward in terms of significantly reducing migration.”
The number of births and deaths across the period is projected to be almost identical, with about 6.8 million births offset by 6.8 million deaths.
While births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are also projected to rise due to the relatively large number of people reaching older ages who were born during the “baby boom” after the second world war.
The level of net migration to the UK is projected to average 340,000 per year from mid-2028 onwards, lower than current levels.
This is up to 100,000 higher than before Brexit but down from the record high of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023 under the previous Conservative government.
Karl Williams, research director at the centre-right thinktank Centre for Policy Studies, said: “Once again, ONS population projections have net migration running at unsustainable levels – 340,000 per annum from 2029 onwards and accounting for the entirety of the population growth.”
England’s population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations in the decade to mid-2032, increasing by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.
Adam Corlett, principal economist at the Resolution Foundation, said the figures showed that the projection for working-age population had increased, driven by higher net migration.
“A larger working-age population means a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts, which should deliver a fiscal boost of around £5bn a year by the end of the decade,” he said.
“If the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] uses these population projections, this will be welcome news for the chancellor given the wider economic pressures she is facing.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, who was an immigration minister between 2019 and 2021 at a time when the net migration figure was surging to its peak, said: “This projection is shocking and unacceptable. It can and must be stopped from materialising.
“Ten million arrivals over 10 years is far too high. We need a binding legal cap on visas issued each year which is very, very substantially lower than this in order to get the numbers down and under control.”
“We must also get more of the 9 million economically inactive adults in the UK into the workforce and invest more in technology and mechanisation, to end the unsustainable reliance on mass low-skilled migration.”
