File:
PC.png (866.61 KB,1998x1096) As far as new information concerning the coronavirus is concerned, not much new information has come out. It would certainly seem at this point that the coronavirus is a fairly "known quantity." As far as actual news goes, all that currently remains to be reported is the potential for sequelae (conditions following infection and recovery) and on-the-ground reporting of new and/or evolving epidemic clusters.
There is one thing that I speculated might be the case, however, and it would seem that I've unfortunately been proven right; a research paper has come out which shown the capability of SARS-2, SARS-1 and MERS to be neuroinvasive. In other words, the coronavirus can infiltrate the central nervous system, and can thereafter spread within the thalamus and brainstem. The researchers theorized that this could be one of the factors resulting in mortality for those suffering from ARDS. Essentially, because the brainstem is responsible for the unconscious breathing response, patients may be dying during their sleep due being unable to breathe as a result of neural damage.[1] Although the researchers did not mention it, I now highly suspect that like other neuoinvasive diseases such as Herpes and Chickenpox, that recovery could entail the virus merely going dormant within nerve cells after the infection has been eliminated from the lungs.
With that horrifyingly depressing news out of the way, lets move on to more cherry news: we've now reached a new milestone! There are now more than 100,000 people who have been confirmed to be infected! Fortunately, the total number of recovered cases (approx. 60K) currently outnumbers the number of currently infected cases (approx. 43K).
At any rate, as I also predicted would be the case, the US CDC's haphazardly reactive approach to dealing with this infection has resulted in numerous epidemic clusters forming with the United States. Those that we currently know of are in New York, California, and Washington. Again, it desperately needs to be stated that this is only know
because of testing ; without proactive testing of individuals currently not showing symptoms of infection, there is a very large probability that this infection will continue to spread silently, and unabated. Though the CDC has reported that some ~1.5 million tests will become available this week, unless these are strategically deployed to catch disease before it spreads within a community, simply confirming whether or not a symptomatic person is infected will do nothing to help contain the spread of infection. At this point, drastic social measures need to be taken to ensure the prevention of spread. That means, restricting public gatherings to those above a certain number (ideally, those of more than 5-10 people), closing schools and universities, quarantining areas where there may be community spread present, taking individual social distancing measures (avoiding any and all unnecessary physical contact: handshakes, hugs, kisses, etc.) and above all
starting public awareness campaigns in order to inform the public of what they can do as an individual to prevent themselves from becoming infected and what they can do to prevent others from becoming infected as well.
Europe has been seeing drastically increasing numbers of cases as well, likely imported from the Italian clusters in Northern Italy. I'd like to add some news in that regard as well, but unfortunately I'm not a polyglot (My French is a bit rusty, but I haven't been following the news there) so I won't make any definitive statements because I can't exactly read the news coming out of those locations.
[1]
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jmv.25728 Previous Thread:
>>>/trans/110 Sorry about that last post, Vermin. I'm invoking my right to 1 (one) heated gamer moment :P
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Apparently a building containing a good amount of quarantined people in China collapsed. I would've thought it was China taking drastic measures to reduce spread but they are rescuing people from it.
does this make the virus spread more or less …
>>29941 It being neuroinvasive? Likely little to no effect on spread. What it does mean is that an infected person may recover from the viral pneumonia, but the virus itself may go dormant and hide in the nerve cells to avoid immune cells. In the case of Herpes, dormancy and then subsequent flair-ups cause shooting nerve pain and rashes. Chickenpox eventually results in Shingles which causes severe nerve pain along the spine. More or less, because we don't know what sort of follow-up infection this virus can cause, long-term monitoring of recovered people will likely be necessary. According to the results of the paper I linked to, they found that the virus eventually spreads to the thalamus and brainstem. Hypothetically, then, a follow-up infection may result in brain damage. Granted, I believe it mentioned that they inoculated their nice through the nose, where it might have been able to compromise the nerve cells there and then make way into the brain via the connection to the olfactory bulb. More realistically, if the site of infection is the lungs, then the virus might hide in the nerves around that location rather than making its way to the brain. That is, unless a person gets infected through their sinuses, where it may very well get to the brain.
The Dow Jones dropped more than 2000 points today, which equates to a 7.79% drop. I'm too good at predicting things. This sucks. This marks a total drop of close to 20% from February 21. If this trend continues, we face an extreme risk of global recession.
the market was on stilts anyways, a year or two ago I commented that it looked exactly like bitcoin if you zoomed out…
>>30160 I agree. Although the markets have been trending positive, they've been incredibly volatile at times, not to mention we've long since passed various metrics that indicated the 2008 financial crisis: inversion of the yield curve, reinflated housing market, increasing prevalence of high-risk debt accumulation. This was just the straw the broke the camel's back. But what especially did it was the effective severring of international supply lines connected to China for manufacturing.
Every class at my university is now going online following Spring break. All gatherings are cancelled and all sporting events will have no spectators. Similarly, the pools and gyms are now closed. Campus visits by people not affiliated with the university are now only allowed for essential purposes and must otherwise be confirmed by the VP. Likewise non-essential university-sponsored travel is suspended and must be confirmed by the VP. Officially, nobody has been infected, but recent word-of-mouth suggests someone has.
>>30308 god patchouli is so cute i just want to make her a nice tea and tuck her into bed
>>30308 I wonder if this will effect standardized testing for colleges like the SAT or GRE.
>>30310 i read this a *uck half an hour ago…
>>30330 i would absolutely not do such a thing even if she asked me to
Looks like people are finally going into panic mode. A lot of these measures would have been more timely a month ago
>>30363 Such is the nature of human risk assessment. Unless something starts personally affecting them, most people will never consider the ramifications of a certain possibility. Unfortunately, even still, most of the actions being taken are reactive rather than proactive and there's mixed messaging across every level of society in regards to the level of reaction people should take. Most infamously, should people wear masks? Research says yes. Politicans say no.
>>30368 I'm too manly to die to a virus.
>>30566 >homes and what of the people who live in apartments
>>30577 Pretty much the definition of, "We just need to make sure nobody knows, until everybody knows."
>>30608 hopefully he comes out fine and can serve as an example of someone old surviving for those in worry
>>30577 more like the WHY?
useless ass organization
>>30577 >>30629 They probably wanted to prevent a panic. Normans are notoriously bad under stressful conditions. Either way I'm probably gonna refuse to get help. Simply cause I hate the government.
doubt that we have any oji-sans on this board so most likely everyone posting here is fine
man, this is close to recession
>>30651 know people here who are 40 and 22
>>30654 still wouldn't call anyone not 60+ oji-san so they're still probably fine
not sure if I'm sick or just woke up too early after watching sad anime……
oh ya, my aunt has a buisness in vaccination r&d. Should have asked my father what's happening with that, but he seems pretty stressed out since he regularly goes to india and the states. She probably thinks it's bad I'm guessing
Are you prepared /qa/? Do you have at least a 6 months supply of food, water, medicine, anime, games? The stores are going to get completely ransacked very soon.
i eat fast food for every single meal and don't have a single MORSEL of food in my aparment that i can eat
>>30675 you're rich in apocalypse currency
just take a shower after you poop
>>30688 Gross. But, really, toilet paper is typically manufactured domestically so there's no point to hoarding it.
peasants don't know about bidets
>>30688 I think most people are buying tp because they heard people might buy tp and cause a shortage.
Justin Trudeau's wife tests positive
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Trudeau talking about coronavirus apparently
Japan's not going to close the Olympics heh. spent way too much money on it like all hosts do
lol people really are trying to learn all they can
trump and admins say that it will be gone when it's summer.. but as cases in the southern hemisphere rise it's pretty obvious this is going to last until there's a real response. Probably desperate attempt to calm markets.
Genuinely surprised if not mildly impressed that youtube is not being dangerously evil and is actually linking fact-based formation directly from the functioning part of government instead of the usual algorithm-based chicanery.
>>31012 I heard youtube is demonetizing videos talking about coronavirus.
the algorithm is badly tuned, when they have people do it manually it works out fine, but when they use bots they screw up all over
>>31016 I guess there's some reassurance in this in that it means really good AI is still far off for those that believe it to be a doomsday sceneario
>>31017 basically the model for propper moderation is too complex for something of YouTube's size so they just evaluate based on title names and use hashing algorithms for videos
>>31017 No, the AI is still better than humans, it's just that youtube's AI goal is not to educate you, but to keep you watching videos as long as possible in order to keep you hypnotically watching ads. It is incredibly good at that.
Markets are taking a FUCKING beating
zzz father is in Sri Lanka for work and mother freaking out about quarantining him in the bedroom when he gets back
>>31348 i thought they didn't use that word anymore
>>31357 no that's just wikipedia news. Those are recent deaths of anyone.
>>31358 Although, coincidentally, he was quarantined:
>Though he was not going to be used at stud, USDA regulations required all stallions imported to the US to be tested for contagious equine metritis by test breeding two mares. After a month in quarantine at the Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital, War Emblem refused to breed any mares presented to him, and in order to keep the horse in the United States, the only remaining option was to geld him. based volcel horsie
the neet shall inherit the earth
i haven't gone to a store in over 5 months, can someone who actually goes outside let me know if i'll actually be able to get food or not?
Wish my thread didn't devolve into a pseudo-blog, but oh well…
>>31396 Depends where you live. I went to a walmart near a big city on Thursday and everything was completely stocked. Flew back home and the walmart near me in the suburbs had empty shelves in a bunch of aisles.
>>31396 yeah, but less selection and prices might start going up if there's no government control
there's no percentage on easy to find news, but it's been suspected that there's a few cases like this.
>>31401 Don't tell me it infects based on blood type.
>>31402 Luckily I've learned that mutations tend to be towards less serious than more. After all, someone mildly ill will infect more than a someone bedridden.
>>31432 Also, less serious illness means lesser deaths which means the virus population will flourish even more.
>>31440 Can't believe Yang won without even being nominated Hey buddy I think you got the wrong board, gnfos is 2 blocks down
Now tell me how many packs a day those people smoked.
>>31448 >92.50% death rate Using this method of calculation, New York State is currently experiencing a 100% death rate.
>>31396 Where I live, people bought up all the bread, but there were still plenty of cartons of nuts.
>>31450 Well if they're a city dwelling Chinese, then even the ones that don't smoke have smoker's lungs.
>>31466 >>31469 Something tells me that the Senate will completely neuter this and add in stupid caveats to prevent people from getting their $1,000.
>>31469 tfw my landlord and boss are going to be getting thousands of dollars a month, and ill be getting NOTHING (non-citizen) and still have to fugging pay them rent
Is it true that U.S. has already made a vaccine and successfully tested it on people?
>>31506 No. Clinical trials are done in three phases of increasing participant pools. First phase involves testing for adverse affects. Second phase involves broad efficacy testing; i.e. does it actually work. Third phase involves more of the same as phase two but with an even larger pool.
All in all, even given the fast-tracking of vaccine development, to pass all of those phases and develop a functioning vaccine will take
at least one year. No where has a vaccine.
Best case scenario is that the Remdesivir study in China comes back with positive results in April when their results are due to be published. If that's the case, even though we won't necessarily have a vaccine, we will have medicine that's proven to be effective. Otherwise, again, we're back to waiting for a vaccine. Anecdotally, there have been reports that Chloroquine, an anti-Malarial drug, might be effective at treating coronavirus patients.
>>30319 Work in schooling and all SAT's have been cancelled in my area because they cross over the school shut down time. Kids get the choice of re taking it next month or getting a free test whenever. Real concern is AP students because they would be prepping for the exam now.
Anyhow local news in my area is that a DC trip was cancelled and the schools refusing to refund. A bunch of parent's are made because they don't have their 750 dollars back
glad I didn't put my 25k of post university savings into the "infinite growth stock market machine"
College is closed for the month yay!
I'm uncertain about the possible occurrence of any nation's economy collapsing over this. Everyone seems to be so in the shitter right now that no one nation can truly collapse. At least, none of the first world ones
If all officials in a city were to become bedridden it would lead to an opportunity for radical groups to take over. I believe this is why most Chinese officials left the country and managed via internet
>>31603 True, I'd forgotten about that. Though it's hard to imagine how a great depression would work out in modern times
>>31607 Kind of weird they call it "black monday" even though the "black" means basically the opposite of "black friday"
>>31620 That's because "black" in the context of "black Friday," refers to
going in the black. That's the opposite of
going in the red, or in other words, means that a company breaks even and starts generating a profit.
Not sure what the context is for "black <weekday>." I'm assuming it's just to do with the general association that black = bad, white = good.
The water is clear and there are fish, swans and even dolphins in the canals of Venice. It reminds me of 9/11 and the calls of whales being recorded with great frequency due to a lack of noise pollution from boats
death to recovered is now past 10%
I have a cough and sore throat but no fever or tiredness. Then again I always feel tired and have slight fever when I wake up sometimes so maybe I just don't notice it, but I don't want to be sure yet since I believe anxiety will only accelerate the sickness or even let the suggestions take hold instead of the actual disease. Tl;dr I don't think I'm infected yet and what I get is just from sitting right in front of spinning fan in dusty room all the time. Besides I rarely even go out.
well, the virus is about suffocating you in your own mucus so that's what you have to worry about
>>31780 No it's not you dumb fucking autistic. It's about lung pain. The virus is a SARS/AIDS hybrid in that it attacks your lungs and the antibodies so you keep getting sick. A lot of people don't even have mucus or cough much.
>>31781 i always thought that pneumonia was bad for you because of the fluid build up in the lungs drowns you.
>>31784 It is. Anonymous has reading comprehension problems. Don't pay attention to them, Anonymous.
Even if it's just normal coughs I think people outside still won't be pleasant about it with this whole pandemic going on.
There's been three deaths in Argentina but only 100 confirmed cases. It's underreported for sure, so it's gonna spread. Although a panic now has people acting more carefully and the enacted global travel ban + frontier lockdown may help.
Everything is easy. The vodka will kill it.
>>31827 Some distilleries are giving out home made hand sanitizer with every purchase.
>>31830 Holy…
new york state holy crap… it's literally exponential
>>31832 NY has been ramping up testing so that doesn't necessarily mean the actual spread is that fast.
>based on 2018 tax return
>>31851 Here's the list of people fucked over that I can think of:
- NEETs
- freeters/"underemployed" that don't file
- those who recently entered the workforce
- full time students
- those who suffered loss of income since filing (above threshold in 2018, below the threshold now)
There's probably more.
TIL the reason why my country didn't have more than 1 confirmed case and 4 suspected cases was because there was no testing going on here. Hospitals aren't testing people for coronavirus, I doubt we even have the knowledge/equipment to test for coronavirus.
>>31849 Some dude who was making 75k, but job hopped to in 2 years 99 k would still be eligible for this.
Also the rule needs to be changed per state. 75 k in my area is upper middle class, but other places thats fucking poverty level.
nypost.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-killing-more-than-a-person-an-hour-in-nyc/amp/
hehehe
father has gotten back from trip overseas. he's in a 2 week self isolation now. He was in the same area as an Italian who came down with it, but symptoms of that should have shown by now so it's just a matter of airport hygiene now.
remember there's a 1/5 chance you need the ventilator regardless of your health
>>32143 That's not true. There's a 1/5th chance of needing hospitalization, the rate of needing a ventilator is lower. And it is based on health, if you are young and have no underlying conditions you are unlikely to need hospitalization.
>>32146 I don't think they will be dipping the swabs in contaminated lake water.
>>32149 You're right. I think the back of the throat might be the contaminated lake.
>>32155 Just don't gargle lake water before your test. If the amoeba was just chilling at the back of people's throats they'd risk brain loss just by sneezing.
so china is supposedly having a hard time managing imported cases now with 57 newly revealed cases
these being dommestic.
New York State currently testing more per capita than any state or country including Worst Korea.
>>32265 amazing country. the politicians eating themselves up over discussions on public health. this was the most predictable outcome
Just give me my corona cash already.
gee, 400 confirmed cases in Ontario, but estimates of Otawa said to be at 4000.. States estimates that aren't being said probably pretty crazy
My ears feel warm but every time I take my temperature it says 98.6
>>32303 Kind of odd if the thermometer reads exactly 98.6.
>>32325 I'm certainly in no position to question his credentials, but his rhetoric definitely seems slanted towards suggesting that measures be
lessened, despite his prevailing argument that more data is needed to make any worthwhile policy prescriptions. Likewise, I find some of his conclusions to be fairly questionable, especially when he makes arguments like, "If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period." This doesn't add up in the slightest. If "flattening the curve" only has moderate effectiveness (i.e. people still become infected regardless), then by definition there would not be a protracted epidemic that lasts longer than if no measures were taken at all, because there would be no functional difference between responses. Following his own logic, for whatever reason he also seems to believe that more people dying over an extended period of time is less preferable to more people dying over a short period of time. Similarly, I find it rather incredible that someone of his sort seems unconvinced by the extent of applicability of the available data towards generalizing a population; though noticeably slanted older relative to the general population (pic related), the available Chinese data is fairly complete all things considered. By all accounts, despite the relatively questionable Chinese data, their data directly shows the effectiveness of draconian social measures to reduce transmission: prior to undertaking the draconian measures they did, the transmission rate appeared to be very high (retrospectives estimate an R0 between 2 and 4), however, since those policies have been enacted we've seen a
SHARP decrease in the number of new cases. And since then, the majority of new cases and deaths have all come from outside of China. If that is not evidence in and of itself that draconian measures
are effective, then I don't know what is, especially considering his admits as much in the paper you linked: "The fact that containment measures do seem to work, means that the basic reproduction number is probably in the lower bound of the 1.3-6.5 range, and can decrease below 1 with proper measures."
All in all, I agree with his musing that incomplete data shouldn't necessarily be used to make broad generalizations, but his conclusions seem to be anything but consistent let alone coherent. After all, what is the alternative? That we take no measures until we know what works? That'd be a laughable proposal if he were a nobody, but is bordering criminal given his position of authority.
That said, his statement that, "randomized trials should evaluate also the real-world effectiveness of simple measures (e.g. face masks in different settings), least disruptive social distancing measures, and health care management policies for documented cases," really gives away where his moral compass lies. No medical ethics board would ever accede to such a test as it violates the very basic tenet that medical studies (or any study for that matter) should
[b]never[b] knowingly engage in potentially harmful conduct towards the participants. It's for that reason why such studies are always retrospectives on conduct instead of controlled experiments. Or, at the very least, that research instead be conducted on animals instead of humans. Admittedly, I very much doubt we could instill the social norms required to get mice to wear surgical masks or engage in social distancing.
>>32342 I hope I understand him correctly. I think he means that it's possible that flattening the curve might mean that hospitals have too many patients for more days.
I don't know how he would design the trials. From
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinical_equipoise : "An ethical dilemma arises in a clinical trial when the investigator(s) begin to believe that the treatment or intervention administered in one arm of the trial is significantly outperforming the other arms."
Ioannidis must also mean that the trials have to be ethical.
In the end, we have to find the measures that work. What if the draconian measures are effective, but only a part of them are necessary? What if there are effective measures that haven't been implemented yet?
Drove 850km today to get back to my home state before the border closes tomorrow. Gonna enjoy the next week of solo-camp roadtrip.
- Trump makes skepticism on benefits of quarantine and distancing
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