## The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by dreadnaught3200 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:21 am

One of my jobs that I've been holding down this past summer has been in an Investment Advisor's office. So I've eavesdropped on a lot of what my boss and his partners have been talking about. Strangely they can't agree, since the US lost its triple A credit rating, one is convinced that we're headed straight for another recession, another is convinced that investors have just lost confidence and the economy will bounce back within a couple of months.
What do you think? Will things get better? Are we headed for a meltdown?
There's a permanent tension in music isn't there? On one hand you have three chords, you know, four four and three chords. Then there's the people like me, who say "Well, why don't we add a fourth chord and put it in five four?" - Bill Bruford

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by the other one » Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:22 pm

it comes to a depression. The economic system of the EU and USA will crash down in the near future. And it begins with the totaly crash down of the Dollar and Euro.
“Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.”
Bertrand Russell

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Jason Toddman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:51 am

I'm not quite as pessimistic as 'the other one', but I do think things will get worse (and for quite a long while) before they get better. So far it's nowhere near as bad as the Great Depression (when unemployment was up to 23%!!!), but likely this economic problem will last at least as long as that did if not longer, and may still deteriorate into a second Great Depression.
Dare to be different... and make a difference.
To boldly go where no one in their right mind has gone before...

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by the other one » Sat Aug 20, 2011 2:40 pm

Well the USA was on the 3.August very near to be insolvent.
And you 've also not to forget those people who lost the trust into the country and won't be in the statistics.
“Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.”
Bertrand Russell

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Kyle » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:11 pm

"Another" recession? When did the first one end exactly?

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Jason Toddman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:05 am

> Kyle wrote:"Another" recession? When did the first one end exactly?

Supposedly it ended two years or so ago (dependingon who you ask) and we've been in a (very weak) recovery since.
To which *I* say: If it looks like s**t and smells like s**t and attracts flies like s**t, it's probably s**t!
Dare to be different... and make a difference.
To boldly go where no one in their right mind has gone before...

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Chris12 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:24 am

I think the American economy will surely get worse especially if the democrats and more importantly the republicans keep up this incompetence. The Eu's future isn't looking any better now that we found out countries like Greece , Italy and some others can't be trusted which means they'l need ''big brother northen Europe'' to bail them out

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Kyle » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:46 pm

> Jason Toddman wrote:

> > Kyle wrote:"Another" recession? When did the first one end exactly?

> Supposedly it ended two years or so ago (dependingon who you ask) and we've been in a (very weak) recovery since.
> To which *I* say: If it looks like s**t and smells like s**t and attracts flies like s**t, it's probably s**t!

This is the first time I've actually heard anyone have an explanation for the supposed end of the recession.
I know technically a recession is when the economy is getting worse, which means in pure economic terms the economy could suck forever and still not technically be in a recession, but it sure wasn't really getting any better.

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Jason Toddman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:10 pm

> Kyle wrote:I know technically a recession is when the economy is getting worse, which means in pure economic terms the economy could suck forever and still not technically be in a recession, but it sure wasn't really getting any better.

It actually did get better for a fortunate few, but that's about it. For the majority of people (especially working and middle class people), it just kept worse and still is. Inmy case for example, I still work full time but haven't had a pay raise in seven years. You can bet the prices of things I need (like food and rent) haven't remained as flat as my wages!
Dare to be different... and make a difference.
To boldly go where no one in their right mind has gone before...

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by dreadnaught3200 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:42 am

> Kyle wrote:"Another" recession? When did the first one end exactly?

Just to be clear, what I meant by "another" recession is a return to levels the economy hit a couple of years ago. Sorry about that. We weren't hit as hard up here, so the contrast between the recession and the current economic climate is much more visible. That being said, the recession still hasn't really ended for anybody, it seems. And it certainly hasn't been helped by the recent debt ceiling debacle. Thanks a lot Washington! A plague on both your houses as far as I'm concerned!
There's a permanent tension in music isn't there? On one hand you have three chords, you know, four four and three chords. Then there's the people like me, who say "Well, why don't we add a fourth chord and put it in five four?" - Bill Bruford

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by the other one » Tue Aug 23, 2011 2:01 pm

It's just a big plutocracy. And then it's clear who gets the money
“Collective fear stimulates herd instinct, and tends to produce ferocity toward those who are not regarded as members of the herd.”
Bertrand Russell

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Kyle » Tue Aug 23, 2011 4:27 pm

> dreadnaught3200 wrote:

> > Kyle wrote:"Another" recession? When did the first one end exactly?

> Just to be clear, what I meant by "another" recession is a return to levels the economy hit a couple of years ago. Sorry about that. We weren't hit as hard up here, so the contrast between the recession and the current economic climate is much more visible. That being said, the recession still hasn't really ended for anybody, it seems. And it certainly hasn't been helped by the recent debt ceiling debacle. Thanks a lot Washington! A plague on both your houses as far as I'm concerned!

Actually, you're not the first one I've heard use that phrase, so I wasn't really calling you out. Things did level out, at least, so I can see where the idea comes from a bit, and I can't speak for everyone in this country but things definitely haven't really gotten better around these parts.

> Jason Toddman wrote:

> > Kyle wrote:I know technically a recession is when the economy is getting worse, which means in pure economic terms the economy could suck forever and still not technically be in a recession, but it sure wasn't really getting any better.

> It actually did get better for a fortunate few, but that's about it. For the majority of people (especially working and middle class people), it just kept worse and still is. Inmy case for example, I still work full time but haven't had a pay raise in seven years. You can bet the prices of things I need (like food and rent) haven't remained as flat as my wages!

Yeah, there's always somebody who makes it all right through recessions. There were people who made a killing during the Great Depression, people who saw the bad times coming and made good decisions beforehand...or just got involved in organized crime, like Al Capone.

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Jason Toddman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 8:53 pm

> Kyle wrote:Yeah, there's always somebody who makes it all right through recessions. There were people who made a killing during the Great Depression, people who saw the bad times coming and made good decisions beforehand...or just got involved in organized crime, like Al Capone.

Or like drug dealers today; at least, those who manage to not get caught by the police or shot/robbed by other dealers/druggies looking for a fix. They're doing great business these days, I hear.
Dare to be different... and make a difference.
To boldly go where no one in their right mind has gone before...

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by ebascoray » Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:03 pm

Regarding the idea that the recession supposedly "ended" a couple of years ago: I read about that, and heard discussions about that on talk radio shows, and a number of things that I read and heard pointed to the fact that the "recovery" would be a ***JOBLESS*** recovery. In other words, the jobs, positions, that were eliminated during the recession would never, ever, EVER return again. Companies would realize, that, hey, they can get the work done with fewer staff, so let's just work the remaining employees "half to death", with more duties and responsibilities added on to the existing staff. So, if you were laid off during the past recession, and hoped, HOPED to get that job back again---well, it ain't gonna happen. So, a recovery, maybe---but a JOBLESS recovery.
Ebascoray

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Jason Toddman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:42 pm

IMHO the term jobless recovery is the same sort of doublethink that George Orwell warned us about in his book '1984'. If it's jobless, then it ISN'T a recovery; at best it's a cessation of things getting worse - and we haven't even had *that* yet!
Dare to be different... and make a difference.
To boldly go where no one in their right mind has gone before...

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by dreadnaught3200 » Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:33 am

> ebascoray wrote: In other words, the jobs, positions, that were eliminated during the recession would never, ever, EVER return again. Companies would realize, that, hey, they can get the work done with fewer staff, so let's just work the remaining employees "half to death", with more duties and responsibilities added on to the existing staff.

You're mostly right on that score. On the other hand, one of the beauties of the free market system is that as masses of people get laid off work, they start their own enterprises and jobs inevitably open up. You're right that the jobs that were hacked by the big corporations (Even after Obama handed them those ridiculous bailouts) will never come back. But new jobs will inevitably open up somewhere else... It just hasn't happened yet.

> Kyle wrote:Yeah, there's always somebody who makes it all right through recessions. There were people who made a killing during the Great Depression, people who saw the bad times coming and made good decisions beforehand...or just got involved in organized crime, like Al Capone.

Yeah. Though Al Capone may not be the best example. He was brought down in 1931 true, but his heyday was during the roaring twenties, when people could afford the illegal liquor he was bringing in. A better example would be John Dillinger or Pretty Boy Floyd, the great depression era bankrobbers. Their exploits made them folk heroes.
But the true geniuses of the depression were a few savvy investors who realized that the mass buying on margin would eventually cause a collapse. From about 1924 on, there was a slow but steady stream of stocks being sold. The money went straight from wall street to under their mattresses. When the depression hit, they bought up huge amounts of real estate. And when the economy recovered... They made millions.
It's brilliant really.
There's a permanent tension in music isn't there? On one hand you have three chords, you know, four four and three chords. Then there's the people like me, who say "Well, why don't we add a fourth chord and put it in five four?" - Bill Bruford

### Re: The Economy: Getting better or worse?

Post by Kyle » Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:55 pm

I didn't realize Capone got brought down that early, I thought it was well into the Depression. The bankrobbers were a better example.