# GLOSSARY & SOURCES — Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Crisis
## Data verified May 21, 2026

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## Glossary

**Biomass:** Wood, charcoal, crop waste used for cooking and heating. Primary energy source for most of Sub-Saharan Africa. The fallback when modern fuels become unaffordable.

**Brent crude:** Global oil benchmark price. Priced in USD per barrel. Reference: Fortune, May 21 2026.

**CFA franc:** Currency shared by 8 UEMOA countries, pegged to the euro (655.957 CFA = 1 EUR). Removes independent monetary policy — countries cannot devalue to absorb import shocks.

**Dangote Refinery:** 650,000 bpd refinery near Lagos, Nigeria. Largest in Africa. Operational since 2024. Sources only 5 of 13-15 monthly crude cargoes domestically due to upstream underinvestment.

**Diesel/gasoil:** Middle distillate fuel. Powers trucks, generators, ships, farming equipment, mining. The backbone fuel of Sub-Saharan Africa's economy. NOT the same as petrol/gasoline.

**EPRA:** Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (Kenya). Sets monthly fuel price caps.

**EWURA:** Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (Tanzania). Sets monthly fuel price caps.

**Forex reserves:** Foreign currency held by a central bank for imports and debt service. Measured in USD. Critical buffer against import price shocks.

**Gasoil:** European/international term for diesel. Used interchangeably.

**GERD:** Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. 5,150 MW hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile. Will transform Ethiopia's grid but does not fuel trucks.

**Hormuz, Strait of:** Chokepoint between Iran and Oman. ~21 nautical miles wide at narrowest point. ~17-20 million barrels of oil transit daily under normal conditions. Mined and blockaded by Iran on February 28, 2026.

**IEA:** International Energy Agency. 38 member countries (as of 2026). Coordinates strategic petroleum reserve releases. No Sub-Saharan African countries are IEA members.

**LPG:** Liquefied petroleum gas. Cooking fuel. Competes with biomass (wood/charcoal) in SSA. Price spikes push households back to wood/charcoal.

**NMDPRA:** Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Tracks fuel import and distribution data.

**NUPRC:** Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. Tracks crude oil production.

**PMS:** Premium Motor Spirit. Nigerian term for petrol/gasoline.

**SPR:** Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Government-held emergency oil stocks. South Africa is the only SSA country with IEA-scale SPR capacity. Kenya holds small strategic reserves (~4M barrels).

**UEMOA:** Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine. 8 West African countries sharing the CFA franc. Members: Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Benin, Togo, Guinea-Bissau.

**Urea:** Nitrogen fertilizer produced from natural gas. Price tracks natural gas prices. Sub-Saharan Africa imports the vast majority of its fertilizer.


## Sources

### Nigeria
- NUPRC — crude oil production data, February 2026
- NMDPRA via Inquirer.ng — petrol import share (62% in 2025, 71% in peak months), January 2026
- CBN Governor — foreign reserves $50.45B, February 2026
- Nairametrics — foreign reserves declined to ~$48.4B by April 20, 2026
- Punchng.com / Guardian NG — Dangote Refinery utilization
- Wikipedia: Energy in Nigeria — biomass 73.5% of primary energy (2018 data)

### Ethiopia
- BBC Amharic — Minister Kassahun Gofe on diesel supply cut, March 17 2026
- The Reporter Ethiopia — civil servant mandatory leave, March 4 2026
- IMF — foreign reserves ~$4B (April 2025), external debt ~$29B
- Reuters — sovereign bond default, December 2023
- Wikipedia: Energy in Ethiopia — energy mix (2014 data)

### Kenya
- EPRA — May 15 2026 fuel price review (diesel 242.92 KSh/L, petrol 214.25 KSh/L)
- Reuters — May 18 protests coverage
- Bloomberg — May 18 protests coverage
- DW Swahili — May 18 protests coverage
- Wikipedia: Energy in Kenya — installed capacity 3,778 MW, grid mix (2024)
- IMF — Extended Fund Facility, active

### Tanzania
- EWURA — official May 2026 fuel price caps (diesel 4,248 TSh/L Dar, 4,341 TSh Mtwara)
- EWURA — February 2026 pre-crisis diesel price (2,701 TSh/L)
- EWURA — diesel subsidy 259 TSh/L
- ecohubmap.com / worldrainforests.com — deforestation ~400,000 ha/year

### Ghana
- Bloomberg — cedi world's strongest currency, April 2025
- IMF — $3B Extended Credit Facility
- Fitch Ratings — upgraded Ghana to B (positive outlook), May 8 2026

### UEMOA / CFA Zone
- Westafdaily — UEMOA "fractured" under fuel price pressure, May 2026
- GlobalPetrolPrices — Senegal diesel 680 CFA/L, May 18 2026

### South Africa
- DMRE (Department of Mineral Resources and Energy) — diesel R31.17/L wholesale coast, May 2026
- Southern Suburbs Tatler — diesel/petrol price comparison, May 2026

### Angola
- OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report — crude production ~1.1M bpd

### General / Cross-Cutting
- Fortune — Brent crude $108.76/barrel, 9 AM ET May 21 2026
- GlobalPetrolPrices — global diesel average $1.57/L ($5.94/gal), May 18 2026
- IEA — classified Hormuz closure as "largest supply disruption in history of global oil market"
- Zero Carbon Analytics — SSA import exposure report, March 2026
- African Security Analysis — structural vulnerability report, 2026
- Pan African Review — Iran war exposure analysis, April 2026
- DefenceWeb — African strategic autonomy argument, April 2026
- IMF / World Bank — GDP per capita, population estimates
- Wikipedia: Energy by country — cross-referenced grid mix, biomass dependency


## Data Currency

Fuel prices: verified against live sources May 21 2026. Prices change rapidly during crisis conditions.
Population: World Bank most recent available (varies by country, 2023-2025 estimates).
Credit ratings: Fitch Ratings, checked May 21 2026 (Ghana upgraded from C to B on May 8 2026).
Forex reserves: latest available central bank disclosures.

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*All claims cited with sources where available. Scenario projections are analysis, not predictions. Verify critical numbers before using in your own work.*