## Infographics

Diesel prices comparison: https://files.catbox.moe/vw7ogd.png
Fuel reserves comparison: https://files.catbox.moe/s7t7u1.png

---

## Glossary

API gravity: American Petroleum Institute gravity, measures how heavy or light crude oil is relative to water. High API = light (easier to refine into gasoline/diesel). Low API = heavy (needs more processing, often yields more asphalt/residual fuel). Middle Eastern crudes tend to be medium-sour; each refinery is optimized for a specific API and sulfur range.

Black market premium: The extra percentage over the official exchange rate paid to obtain foreign currency (typically USD) outside the formal banking system. When importers cannot get dollars from banks, as in the Maldives and parts of Southern Asia, the black market becomes the real exchange rate.

Brent crude: The global benchmark oil price. Quoted per barrel (159 liters). $111/barrel May 19, fell to ~$106 at close May 20, 2026; roughly 2x the pre-crisis level. Most Southern Asian countries import Middle Eastern crude priced against Dubai/Oman benchmarks, which trade at a premium to Brent during a Gulf disruption. Brent understates the actual price pain for Asian importers.

CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight): The total delivered cost of a commodity including purchase price, marine insurance, and shipping. The CIF price is what a buyer actually pays at the delivery port. When war-risk insurance spikes 4x to 12x (as in the current crisis), the CIF price can be 2-3x the quoted Brent benchmark.

Feedstock: Raw material input for an industrial process. Natural gas is the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer (urea). When gas stops, fertilizer production stops. This is why Bangladesh's fertilizer plants are shuttered: no LNG, no feedstock, no urea.

Force majeure: A contract clause triggered by war, natural disaster, or events beyond either party's control. When invoked, the supplier is released from delivery obligations without penalty. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports March 3, cutting off Bangladesh and other buyers.

FOB (Free On Board): The price of a commodity loaded onto a ship at the export port. The buyer pays for insurance, freight, and all costs from that point onward. FOB prices don't include the war-risk insurance and elevated freight costs that have made delivered crude 2-3x more expensive during this crisis.

Hormuz (Strait of): The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. ~20% of global oil and ~20% of global LNG normally transit it daily. Closed since February 28, 2026. At its narrowest, the strait is just 21 nautical miles wide.

Just-in-time (JIT) inventory: A supply chain strategy where goods arrive exactly when needed, minimizing storage costs. The downside: no buffer. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh run on JIT commercial fuel inventories; a 3-day supply disruption is an immediate 3-day shortage at the pump. Countries with strategic reserves can absorb weeks of disruption before the public feels it.

Kharif: Southern Asian summer crop season (June-October). Includes rice, cotton, sugarcane. Depends on monsoon rains AND fertilizer. The 2026 kharif season is planting right now, during the crisis.

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): Natural gas cooled to minus 162 degrees Celsius, shrinking it 600x in volume for tanker transport. Countries without pipeline gas or domestic production (Bangladesh, Pakistan) depend on LNG imports for power generation, industrial fuel, and fertilizer feedstock.

Loadshedding: Planned, rolling electricity blackouts; turning off power to specific areas on a schedule when generation cannot meet demand. Unlike a blackout (unplanned failure), loadshedding is managed scarcity. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal are all experiencing daily loadshedding.

LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas): Cooking gas stored in pressurized cylinders, primarily propane and butane. 332 million Indian households depend on it for every meal. Cannot be replaced at scale by electricity or piped gas in a crisis measured in weeks. The logistical challenge: LPG requires a specialized supply chain of import terminals, bottling plants, and cylinder distribution trucks, all of which depend on diesel.

Refined products vs. crude oil: Crude oil is the raw material. Refined products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG) are what consumers actually use. A country that imports crude but has refineries (India) is more resilient than one that imports refined products (Nepal, Maldives). When refineries shut down elsewhere, even crude-rich countries face product shortages.

Remittances: Money sent home by workers abroad, typically in USD, EUR, or Gulf currencies. Southern Asia is the world's largest remittance destination: ~$38.3B/year for Pakistan, ~$23B for Bangladesh, roughly 33% of GDP (~$14-15B) for Nepal. Remittances exceed foreign direct investment in most Southern Asian countries. The Gulf war threatens both the jobs that generate remittances and the banking channels that deliver them.

SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve): Government-owned emergency crude oil stocks held in underground salt caverns or tank farms. The US SPR holds ~700 million barrels (the largest). Among Southern Asian countries, only India has one (9.5 days strategic storage capacity + 64.5 days commercial capacity, though as of March 2026 the strategic portion was only 64% full). Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Maldives all have zero; they operate entirely on commercial inventory.

Spot price vs. contract price: Contract prices are pre-negotiated between buyer and seller for delivery over a set period (typically 3-12 months). Spot prices are what you pay right now for immediate delivery. During a crisis, spot prices spike far above contract prices: HSBC cited delivered spot crude to Sri Lanka reaching $286/barrel while Ceylon Petroleum's contracted crude remained at $72-113/barrel. The premium is the price of desperation.

Sulfur content (sour vs. sweet): Crude oil is classified by sulfur content. Sweet crude has less than 0.5% sulfur; sour crude has more than 0.5%. Sour crude requires additional refining to remove sulfur (desulfurization). Most Middle Eastern grades are medium-sour (1-3% sulfur). Refineries optimized for specific sulfur ranges cannot simply substitute one crude for another; incompatible crudes produce sludge, corrosion, and catalyst poisoning.

Tank bottoms: The minimum operating level of a fuel storage tank. Below this, pumps cavitate (suck air), distribution infrastructure fails, and the remaining fuel becomes physically unrecoverable. Pakistan's 26-day figure is the time until commercial stocks hit tank bottoms; not until tanks are empty, but until the distribution system stops working.

Urea: The most common nitrogen fertilizer, made from natural gas (as ammonia feedstock) and atmospheric nitrogen. The Gulf supplies roughly 40% of seaborne urea exports (NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor, March 2026; Carnegie Endowment). Southern Asian agriculture uses urea intensively on rice, wheat, and sugarcane. Without it, cereal yields drop 30-50%.

## Key Sources

Oil & Crisis
* [TradingEconomics: Brent crude oil](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil), $111.28 close May 19, $105.55 close May 20, 2026
* [IEA Oil Market Report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-March-2026), March 2026 (called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market)
* [IEA 400M barrel emergency release](https://www.iea.org), March 11, 2026 (largest coordinated SPR release in IEA history)
* [World Economic Forum: Hormuz insurance analysis](https://www.weforum.org), April 2026 (178 ships/day pre-war, 95% traffic reduction)

India
* [GlobalPetrolPrices.com: India diesel prices](https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/India/diesel_prices/), $0.97/L, April 13, 2026
* [GlobalPetrolPrices.com: Global diesel prices](https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/diesel_prices/), global average $1.57/L, May 18, 2026
* [Reuters: India raises retail fuel prices for first time since Iran war started](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-hikes-petrol-diesel-prices-by-3-rupeesliter-retailers-say-2026-05-15/), May 15, 2026 (Rs3/L hike broke the three-month freeze)
* [DD News: LPG production ramped up to 54,000 tonnes per day](https://www.newsonair.gov.in/lpg-production-in-india-ramped-up-to-54000-tonnes-per-day-amid-west-asia-conflict-petroleum-minister-hardeep-singh-puri/), May 2026 (Minister Puri: from ~36K to 54K tons/day)
* [The Hindu: LPG production ramped up to 54,000 tonnes/day](https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/oil-minister-puri-dispels-any-fuel-supply-concerns-lpg-production-ramped-up-to-54000-tonnesday/article70968801.ece), May 2026
* [BankBazaar: Commercial Gas Price in India](https://www.bankbazaar.com/gas-connection/commercial-gas-price-india.html), May 2026 (25-day urban, 45-day rural LPG refill waiting periods)
* [Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India](https://mopng.gov.in), LPG policy and production figures, May 2026
* [RBI: Forex reserves](https://www.rbi.org.in), $697B, May 15, 2026

Pakistan
* [Dawn: Pakistan petrol prices](https://www.dawn.com), May 16, 2026 (petrol Rs409.78/L, diesel Rs409.58/L, Rs5 cut on May 16)
* [Business Recorder: Pakistan weekly oil import bill jumps to $800M](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40418833/pakistans-weekly-oil-import-bill-jumps-to-800mn-amid-us-iran-conflict-says-pm), April 2026 (PM Sharif: surged from $300M to $800M)
* [Profit Pakistan Today: OGRA emergency diesel pricing](https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk), May 13, 2026 (Rs7.1B payment to PSO)
* [Indian Express: Pakistan extends emergency austerity measures till June 13](https://indianexpress.com/article/world/pakistan-austerity-measures-oil-crisis-iran-conflict-impact-india-modi-10684767/), May 12, 2026 (50% fuel allowance cut, 60% vehicles grounded, 4-day workweek)
* [State Bank of Pakistan: Forex reserves](https://www.sbp.org.pk), $15.87B SBP-held, May 8, 2026

Bangladesh
* [The Daily Star: Fuel scarcity deepens power crisis](https://www.thedailystar.net), May 2026
* [GlobalVoices: Bangladesh energy crisis worsens](https://globalvoices.org/2026/04/12/bangladeshs-energy-crisis-worsens-as-uss-war-on-iran-drags-on/), April 12, 2026 (115 LNG cargoes scheduled for 2026; long-term suppliers declared force majeure)
* [Bangladesh Bank: Forex reserves](https://www.bb.org.bd), $35.12B gross, $30.48B net, April 24, 2026
* [The Daily Star: Fuel prices raised to record highs](https://www.thedailystar.net), April 19, 2026 (diesel Tk 115/L, petrol Tk 135/L, octane Tk 140/L)

Sri Lanka
* [ABP Live: Sri Lanka jails man for hoarding 4 litres of petrol](https://news.abplive.com/news/world/sri-lanka-fuel-crisis-jails-man-for-hoarding-4-litres-of-petrol-in-crackdown-colombo-1833251), March 27, 2026 (48-year-old, three weeks in prison)
* [Tamil Guardian: HSBC confirms Sri Lanka paid $286 per barrel](https://tamilguardian.com/content/sri-lanka-forced-pay-286-barrel-oil-hsbc-confirms), 2026 (HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery)
* [Middle East Eye: HSBC CEO on oil prices](https://www.middleeasteye.net), April 15, 2026
* [Central Bank of Sri Lanka: Economic indicators](https://www.cbsl.gov.lk), $7.0B forex, March 2026

Nepal
* [Reuters: Nepal to ration cooking gas](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/nepal-to-ration-cooking-gas-due-to-panic-over-shortage-ce7e5fddd08ef620), March 12, 2026 (half-cylinder rationing)
* [Kathmandu Post: Nepal remittances grew 31.9%](https://kathmandupost.com), 2026 (33% of GDP)

Afghanistan
* [UN News: Afghan mothers and children face worsening hunger crisis](https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/05/1167523), May 15, 2026 (WFP fuel price warning)
* [Arab News: 600,000 Afghans returned in first four months of 2026](https://arabnews.com), May 19, 2026

Maldives
* [Travel And Tour World: Maldives tourism declines](https://www.travelandtourworld.com), 2026 (20.7% March drop, 4-6% annual decline)
* [Travel And Tour World: Beond airline suspension until October](https://www.travelandtourworld.com), 2026

Hormuz & Ceasefire
* [IranWarLive: Strait of Hormuz live status](https://iranwarlive.com/strait-of-hormuz)
* [UNCTAD: Strait of Hormuz disruptions](https://unctad.org), 2026

*Fuel prices, reserve levels, and crisis conditions change rapidly. All claims cited with links where available. Scenario projections are analysis, not predictions. Verification methodology: every country section verified against multiple independent sources in May 2026, including government publications, local news (searched in local languages), international agencies, and price tracking services.*